*  Market Conditions by Price Range

April and May are often the first really strong months of the year in the real estate market.  Sales, in terms of closings, in April and May  were somewhat of a disappointment. In April, there were only 31 closings, compared with 53 in the same month last year.  May 2008 saw only 41 closings, vs. 63 in 2007.

For closing that occurred in April 2008, the average time on market was 70 days, a fall from 80-90 days in the First Quarter 2007.  May closings averaged only 52 days on the market.  This was a significant fall, that portended the extreme pick-up in activity in May pending sales.

Overall housing prices using my favorite measure, median price per square foot, remained steady, and are still in the $310 range.  The latest reading of average price per square foot fell a bit to $320.00 in March, down from the $335.00 March 2008.  Similarly, the volatile median sale price plunged to another new low of $433,000 in May, down from $485,000,in March.  The median list price of pending sale, however, is up at $499,000.  Taken as a whole, the data show that prices have fallen significantly, but appear to have leveled-off for now.  If you plan on buying this season, I continue to think that waiting is unlikely to be profitable.

The overall inventory of homes, condos, and halfplexes in Davis is now 166 units, down from 177 at the writing of the last Newsletter.  In the last Newsletter, I said that I would not be surprised to see inventory in the 250-plus range if the slow market continued.  Facts on the ground have changed that opinion.  Inventories are now falling, and sales have picked up considerably.

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Notice the steep drop in median sale prices, despite the relatively stable per square foot prices.  This reflects the large number of transactions taking place in the sub-$700,000 range, and the dead market above $800,000.  Keep in mind that the median list price of pending sales is back up to $499,000.

Current Market Conditions By Price Range

With 11 listings and four sales in the last 30 days, this price range has moved into a technical "sellers' market".  I doubt that will continue, at least for the rest of the Summer.

This price range has moved into a technical "sellers' market".  There are 17 units on the market, and seven sales in the last 30 days.  That's an inventory of under three months.

With 32 units on the market, and 13 pending sales in the last month, this price range is now in a "sellers' market".  

There are 28 units on the market, and 16 pending sales in the last month.  With a current inventory of less than two months, this market segment is now technically in strong "seller' market" territory.  This is now a price range, particularly in the top end, where a family can find a great house in a great neighborhood.  Prices have fallen $100,000+ from the top, and buyers have apparently decided the time to buy is now.

Inventory in this price range is currently 26 units.  There have been six pending sales in the last month, for an inventory of over four months. Thus, this market segment has improved to a technical "neutral market."  Interestingly, sellers have not been dropping prices as aggressively as one might think, what with the market in this range somewhat sluggish.  However, with the strong market just below in the $500,000-$600,000 range, these sellers' patience may pay off.  Recent price concessions in this range have been remarkably small.  The sellers in this range have very nice homes, and they are sticking to their guns, at least for now.  (That was my advice to my seller in this price range, and it paid off, as we just sold near $700,000).

Inventories stand at 16 listings in this price category.  With four pending sales in last 30 days, this price range continues in "neutral market" territory.  There are a couple very nice homes in this range, including two very nice new homes (of the very few on the Davis market.).  Sellers are sticking tight on their list prices so far.

With 12 listings, and only one pending sale in the last 30 days, this price segment has slipped into "buyers' market" territory with 12 months' supply. I'm frankly not too impressed with the inventory in this range, and would not be surprised to see prices drop.  I would be very aggressive in negotiations.  There is only one listing, being offered by an out of town agent, that looks interesting.  It could be a great deal.  Call me.

With 12 listings, and only one pending sale in the last 30 days, this price segment is now in a technical "buyers' market". The homes in this price range are all very nice, but with one exception, the locations are not so good, in my humble opinion.  If you're going to spend this much, you aught to expect an "A" location, not just a nice house.

Inventory in this price range is now at 12 listings, with one pending sale in the last 30 days.  Thus, this segment continues in serious "buyers' market" territory.  My sentiment from last Newsletter that sellers are crazy not to drop their prices applies again with even greater force:  Spring buyers should be very active in this price range, but are sitting on their hands.   Frankly, some agents representing these listings appear to have unreasonably raised their sellers' expectations, for whatever reason.  It's time for some unpleasant conversations.

With 12 listings and two pending sales in the last month, the income property market remains in technical "buyers' market" territory.