The First Quarter of the year tends to begin slowly, and slowly revv-up as April approaches.  Sales in the First Quarter of 2008 exhibited that pattern, i.e. steadily increasing sales, but at a markedly slower rate than in past years. In January, there were only 10 closings, compared with 20 in the same month last year.  February 2008 saw only 13 closings, vs. 27 in 2007.  March 2008 was even further behind the same month of 2007, with 22 sales vs. 50, respectively.  I hear some Realtors around town telling people, "Oh yeah, things are moving!", and wonder what town they are referring to.

In the First Quarter 2008, the average time on market was 89 days, a rise from the 70ish range in the Third Quarter 2007.  

Overall housing prices using my favorite measure, median price per square foot, have bounced up from a low of $285 in December to the $310 range.  However, current pending sales indicate that current sales are taking place in the $285 to $300 range.  The latest reading of average price per square foot also increased, to $335.00 in March, up from the $319.00 in December 2007.  On the other hand, the volatile median sale price plunged to a new low of $485,000 in March, down from $524,000,in December 2007.  Taken as a whole, the data show that prices have fallen significantly, but appear to have leveled off for now.  If you plan on buying this season, I do not think waiting will be very profitable, assuming you drive a hard bargain.  Still, it is very difficult to draw any concrete conclusions based solely on activity during the always slow First Quarter.

The overall inventory of homes, condos, and halfplexes in Davis is now 177 units, pretty high, even for this time of year.  As new listings come on the market through the rest of the Spring and Summer, I would not be surprised to see inventory in the 250-plus range.

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With 11 listings and no sales in the last month, this price range is obviously in a technical "buyers' market".  Price concessions have recently been as high as $30,000.

This price is in a technical "buyers' market".  There are 25 units on the market, and eight sales in the last 30 days.  That's an inventory of just over three months and a neutral market, verging on a sellers' market.  Price concessions have been somewhat erratic, but generally, have been in the $5000 to $10,000 range.

With 37 units on the market, and 10 pending sales in the last month, this price range is now in a "neutral market".  Price concessions off of list prices have averaged $10,000 to $20,000.

There are 30 units on the market, and 12 pending sales in the last month.  With a current inventory of less than three months, this market segment is now technically in "seller' market" territory.  However, the pending sales may have been driven by sellers who are finally ready to deal, as the average price concession was over $15,000, and, importantly, precious few sales went through at the list price.

Inventory in this price range is currently 29 units.  There have only been five pending sales in the last month, for an inventory of almost six months. Thus, this market segment continues in a technical "buyers' market."  This is a sad scene for the middle of April, when sales should be revving-up.  Sellers are going to have to be willing to price aggressively if they want to unload their properties in the face of so much competition.  Inevitable price reductions in this category will likely compress prices in the $500,000 to $600,000 range.  Recent price concessions in this range have been at least $20,000.

Inventories stand at 11 listings in this price category.  With three pending sales in last 30 days, this price range is in "neutral market" territory.  Still, you can probably negotiate at least $20,000 off an average home in this category.

With seven listings, and three pending sales in the last 30 days, this price segment is now experiencing technical "seller' market" territory with just over two months' supply. Generally, homes that were well over $1,000,000 a couple years ago are now selling in this range. You can get a prime Davis home for under $900,000, and not too many are on the market.  Price concessions have been extremely erratic.  In fact, two out of five closings this year were above the list prices.  However, one home sold for $100,000 below list.

With 10 listings, and one pending sale in the last 30 days, this price segment is now experiencing technical "buyers' market". Given the quality of the inventory in the $800,000 to $900,000 range, these homes may need to lower their list prices to move. Price concessions have erratic.

Inventory in this price range is now at 16 listings, with one pending sale in the last 30 days.  Thus, this segment is in serious "buyers market" territory.  It's even more serious given that Spring buyers should be very active in this price range now.  Looking at the listings, I would conclude that most sellers in this price range are living in "La La Land" with respect to their home values, especially the homes in South Davis and Mace Ranch (Lake Alhambra).  But who knows?  The theory is that wealthy buyers want the best and don't quibble over a couple hundred thousand bucks.

With 13 listings and four pending sales in the last month, the income property market has moved into technical "neutral market" territory.  Investment properties appear to be moving rather well at the moment.